Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesi

Pathways of Understanding: the Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs

Northern Eurasia, the largest landmass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ~20% of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life, as well as its interactions with the environment, may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation, the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously changing climate, environmental, and societal systems. More recently, the NEESPI research focus has been moving toward integrative studies, including the development of modeling capabilities to project the future state of climate, environment, and societies in the NEESPI domain. This effort will require a high level of integration of observation programs, process studies, and modeling across disciplines

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies

Swimming with Predators and Pesticides: How Environmental Stressors Affect the Thermal Physiology of Tadpoles

To forecast biological responses to changing environments, we need to understand how a species’s physiology varies through space and time and assess how changes in physiological function due to environmental changes may interact with phenotypic changes caused by other types of environmental variation. Amphibian larvae are well known for expressing environmentally induced phenotypes, but relatively little is known about how these responses might interact with changing temperatures and their thermal physiology. To address this question, we studied the thermal physiology of grey treefrog tadpoles (Hyla versicolor) by determining whether exposures to predator cues and an herbicide (Roundup) can alter their critical maximum temperature (CTmax) and their swimming speed across a range of temperatures, which provides estimates of optimal temperature (Topt) for swimming speed and the shape of the thermal performance curve (TPC). We discovered that predator cues induced a 0.4uC higher CTmax value, whereas the herbicide had no effect. Tadpoles exposed to predator cues or the herbicide swam faster than control tadpoles and the increase in burst speed was higher near Topt. In regard to the shape of the TPC, exposure to predator cues increased Topt by 1.5uC, while exposure to the herbicide marginally lowered Topt by 0.4uC. Combining predator cues and the herbicide produced an intermediate Topt that was 0.5uC higher than the control. To our knowledge this is the first study to demonstrate a predator altering the thermal physiology of amphibian larvae (prey) by increasing CTmax, increasing the optimum temperature, and producing changes in the thermal performance curves. Furthermore, these plastic responses of CTmax and TPC to different inducing environments should be considered when forecasting biological responses to global warming.Peer reviewe

The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/14693062Strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate change recognize that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can reduce the build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. However, climate mitigation policies do not generally incorporate the effects of these changes in the land surface on the surface albedo, the fluxes of sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere, and the distribution of energy within the climate system. Changes in these components of the surface energy budget can affect the local, regional, and global climate. Given the goal of mitigating climate change, it is important to consider all of the effects of changes in terrestrial vegetation and to work toward a better understanding of the full climate system. Acknowledging the importance of land surface change as a component of climate change makes it more challenging to create a system of credits and debits wherein emission or sequestration of carbon in the biosphere is equated with emission of carbon from fossil fuels. Recognition of the complexity of human-caused changes in climate does not, however, weaken the importance of actions that would seek to minimize our disturbance of the Earth’s environmental system and that would reduce societal and ecological vulnerability to environmental change and variability

Log Cutting Apparatus Design Analysis

Our senior design team from the College of Engineering has been selected to design and build a tool that will assist in producing window notches in pre-manufactured logs. Currently, to make a notch, three cuts are made freehand using a chainsaw Two of these cuts are short cross cuts, which are relatively easy to make. The third is a long rip-cut, and is much more difficult. The current process is not accurate and has several safety issues. Our team designed an apparatus which provides a guide so that the difficult rip-cut is not made freehand. This solves the primary customer issues, resulting in a safer, quicker, more accurate cut. Our team has fabricated a full scale prototype from this design. We have determined the most catastrophic mode of failure to be yielding of the axle for the chainsaw attachment. Due to the complexity of the design we are unable to analytically determine the amount of force on the axle. Our current research will consist of physically verifying the strength of this pin. This will be accomplished by suspending the apparatus, with a chainsaw attached but not running. We will then add successive amounts of weight to the end of the chainsaw. Since the maximum force that the chainsaw can undergo without binding is 11 pounds, weight will be added from 11 to 33 pounds, demonstrating a safety factor of three for the strength of the axle. After each amount weight has been applied, a visual inspection will be done to look for localized yielding. We will also be analyzing the design to see if there are any areas that can be improved upon. This will be accomplished by actually using the prototype and confirming that it acts as predicted. We will also compare the accuracy of cuts made with the apparatus to freehand cuts